Archive for July, 2008

Mortgage Relief Plan does not go Far Enough

I know it’s unusual for a foreclosure expert to stress that what we need in order to make the real estate market work properly now is a mortgage relief plan that really delivers the goods, but I will explain why I say this.

Foreclosures, as I have noted in countless articles and speeches across the country, are a balancing mechanism that is an integral part of the mechanics of our real estate system and our economy. As a percentage of home owners, foreclosures, are always going to be there because the mechanism does a number of things automatically:

1. It stops the real estate market from overheating by increasing the number of foreclosures, organically, as more houses are bought and sold and some, inevitably, will fall foul of the requirements and be unable to keep their home.

2. It releases new money into the system and the economy stopping loaned money from becoming gridlocked in a property that the owner cannot afford to keep and which is going nowhere.

3. It allows houses which have been gridlocked and are ‘dying’ to come back into the real estate market and be sold at affordable prices which to new owners pursuing the great American Dream of owning your own home.

As I mentioned before the moment this mechanism gets flooded with more foreclosures than the system is supposed to produce it stops working properly and begins to cause imbalances in the real estate market that do more harm than good to the industry as a whole.

Proposed relief plans which will supposedly freeze Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) so that those who might not be able to afford them will actually be able to do to so and will not lose their home do not go far enough.

Let’s take Corona in California, where the mortgage-relief plan being pushed by the government is supposed to help debt-laden homeowners across America. But it’s creating dashed hopes and fresh tensions in this city that mushroomed during the subprime-lending boom.

The problem is that the lending occurred in a very indiscriminate and predatory way which effectively removed many of the criteria for lending while the rescue plan that’s being proposed comes with a stringent set of criteria many of the most needy home owners will simply not be able to meet.

Nationwide, California is among the leaders in foreclosure filings this year. It notched state-record highs for default notices and homes lost to lenders in the June-to-September quarter, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla, Calif., real-estate research firm.
The time has come to put together a mortgage relief plan that actually provides mortgage relief. Then and only then will the foreclosures we see work as the organic, balancing mechanism we know and start to provide real value in our real estate economy.

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Foreclosures will continue if there is a Solvency Issue at Big Banks

Foreclosures reached epic proportions for much of 2007 because the real estate market suffered an unprecedented global credit crunch during which many traditional lenders stopped lending money and started chasing late payers and non-payers and foreclosing on their properties.

This turned foreclosures, essentially a balancing mechanism within the real estate market, into a ticking time-bomb which threatened the global economy and which was fast becoming an issue because of liquidity.

Liquidity means that as investor and saver confidence started waning banks were facing the possibility that should there be a run they would be unable to sell all the mortgages they owned fast enough to cover the amount of money borrowers would want to withdraw.

Liquidity causes issues because to forces banks to be really careful with the money they lend as they may have to pay it back to those who have put it in the bank in the first place. Liquidity, however, is a transient problem. Yes, it does undermine investor confidence and shake the real estate market but it is a problem of time.

Simply put, given sufficient time, most banks facing a liquidity problem have enough capital in their books to meet their commitments to savers. The global finance rescue package that was announced by the Fed and the Bank of England as well as the national banks of Canada and Switzerland will together see the banks inject at least $600 billion.

This will go a long way towards addressing liquidity fears but it will not be enough if solvency starts to become an issue. Solvency is a far more difficult problem to deal with. Simply put solvency happens when the price of real estate and property begins to drop to a level where the mortgages that are owned by a bank are not enough to cover its commitments. At that point the bank itself begins to exist on a wing and a prayer.

For solvency to become an issue foreclosures need to continue at the rate we see now and house prices will have to start to drop at a rate that will be called ‘alarming’ by the press. This will create negative equity and a sense that real estate no longer is a fit vehicle for investment which means we will have a real freeze of the market which will not be able to be jump-started even by real estate investors working foreclosures.

Thankfully we are not there yet but there are some worrying signs which should it prove they are real will make the real estate market and the global economy even tougher than it is at the moment. 

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Jeff Adams In The News…

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Real Estate Investors are the Catalyst in the Real Estate Market

The moment you have a slow down in the real estate market you begin to realize the vital role played by real estate investors. As the name suggests real estate investors are there to invest in the market which means they go to great lengths to do their research and they take greater risks than ordinary buyers and sellers precisely because they are creative in the way they buy and sell property and are able to find both buyers and sellers in the most unlikely areas.

When the market is gridlocked due to either overheating (which causes many problems in its own right) or a real estate slump (when prices begin to fall and house buyers are cautious) real estate investors provide a much needed catalyst. They are willing to do the work necessary to find properties which are locked into the market through foreclosures and release them creating an upward and onwards movement within it which benefits everyone involved in real estate.

The assumption is that usually only realtors and lenders can benefit from real estate. In fact there is an entire peripheral industry depending on it and the services within it range from DIY stores to home furnishings and furniture stores.

In truth, real estate, drives a huge chunk of our economy and the recent global crunch in credit and the rockiness we witnessed in the markets was a direct result of  lack of faith in the value of existing mortgages which led to a withdrawal of available credit between banks which in turn reduced the amount of money that was available to be loaned to borrowers and that, caused a tremendous upheaval in the market and a wave of foreclosures which, quite frankly, should never have seen the light of day.

Throughout all this real estate investors managed to find houses, find buyers, find finance and close deals. Admittedly the work was harder and the margins slimmer than ever but they did it and it kept the real estate market afloat long enough for banks to rally and come up with a global finance rescue plan for the lending institutions which were facing difficulties and that led to a revitalizing of the real estate market.

The temptation here is strong to think that we are now out of the woods. With more money than before available for them to borrow banks should be able to loan money but now that the question of liquidity is solved the question of solvency is beginning to raise its head.

Solvency is a much more serious issue than liquidity and if it proves to be a problem it will put the real estate market back to the doldrums it was in for much of 2007.

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Foreclosures Will Start to Ease Off as Credit Crunch Dissipates

It’s true what they say. Money really does make the world go round and the lack of it can threaten to bring the world to a standstill. In recent months the global credit crunch has made banks unwilling to lend to each other which means that they have been even less willing to lend to consumers and this has led to a tightening up of the money available to do anything.

This kind of situation is exactly what can potentially bring about a recession, a shrinkage of global markets and a reversal of the progress we have made through globalization. Because the potential risk has been so great it goes without saying that the world’s greatest banks would do something about it.

Sure enough The Fed, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the national banks of Canada and Switzerland have banded together to put in more than $100 billion into the world monetary system.

The result of such action is a speeding up of the sluggish world economy which means that in terms of real estate the green light is back on. Real estate is a funny business because in order to work right it requires two things: new home buyers and foreclosures. New home buyers are required because they are the lifeblood of the system. Foreclosures are needed because they help keep things in control.

Foreclosures are a balancing mechanism that unlocks ‘dead money’ and puts it back in circulation, revitalizes the market and helps to create fresh supply and demand where before you had a deadlocked situation between a borrower and a lender with the only potential outcome the lender taking control of a property and spending a lot of money trying to sell it at a loss.

The credit crunch that we were experiencing was affecting man lenders and lending institutions and, in its international outlook, was stopping overseas investors from pouring in money that could jumpstart the sluggish U.S. housing market.

All this is now set to change. While it may be a brief while before we experience a really positive outlook in real estate again, 2008 looks set to be a seminal year in terms of the real estate market and foreclosures in particular.

The tightening of credit we experienced has led to a pruning of bad practices and bad lending accounts and the fall out has actually benefited the market as a whole. This means that we are now ready to turn a new leaf having learnt from the mistakes of the past and foreclosures can once again become to golden wedge helping to open up new areas of real estate and attract new home buyers into the market.

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