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Archive for November, 2007
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Abstract: It is becoming rapidly apparent that lenders have had a hand in the problems that bedevil them with defaulting home owners.
As foreclosures begin to get a lot of press coverage, inevitably, what comes under scrutiny is the lending practise, criteria and even advertising methods of some of the lenders in the real estate market.
A recent news item on CNN, for example, highlighted the fact that many borrowers in trouble were pulled in by deceptive ads such as LowerMyBills.com. The ads featured dancing figures, apparently happy about low-loan rates. One ad claimed a “$145,000 mortgage for under $499 a month!” Few, if any, borrowers actually scrolled to the bottom to see payments actually double over time.
It is exactly this kind of advertising practice and the fact that very recently a top level mortgage broker publicly admitted that they were under pressure to meet tough monthly targets by practically helping self-certified borrowers fill-in mortgage application forms in a way that would make it possible for the borrower to apply for a much higher loan than would otherwise have been possible.
With practices like this it is no wonder that borrowers caught in the hard world of the sub-prime mortgage market are in trouble, nor is it any wonder that lenders are over-exposed. Lawmakers and cynics are already talking about greed being the undoing of the lenders but that, right now, is beside the point.
What is required here are two distinctly different forms of action, none of which has anything to do with the knee-jerk reaction of banning sub-prime mortgages, as some have been calling for in the news.
The first, is already been taken, President Bush and members of Congress as well as 37 State Prosecutors have began to pressure lenders to be a little less eager to foreclose on properties and actually work with struggling home owners to resolve the issue where possible.
The second, and probably the hardest to implement, is the enactment of regulation which will safeguard, in future, borrowers from exactly the kind of sharp practice they have been exposed to this time round. Whether this is a self-regulatory or a legislatively-driven kind of regulation is, at this stage, immaterial. We clearly need something in place if we are to preserve the healthy growth in home ownership figures and the fact that the existence of sub-prime mortgages gives the opportunity to borrowers who would not otherwise be able to buy a house, to benefit from the great American Dream.
The state of our economy is only bolstered from home ownership and to contemplate anything that negatively affects that is clearly a short-sighted, knee-jerk reaction which will do more harm than the foreclosure and mortgage debt problems it tries to avoid.
Abstract: Foreclosures are on the rise but lenders are under government and State Officials pressure to be less quick to foreclose.
The moment the US government under President Bush, members of Congress and no fewer than 37 top State Prosecutors pile pressure on lenders to communicate with struggling home owners rather than simply pull the plug and automatically foreclose on a property the owner of which has missed a number of payments you know that just because a home owner’s finances have taken a bad turn it does not mean that nothing can be salvaged.
Let’s look at the facts that usually govern a situation about to go to foreclosure: 1. The homeowner has missed a number of payments and is facing some financial difficulty. But he was able, prior to that to actually make payments and keep things together so there is a good chance that given some leeway he can do it again.
2. The lender is following an in-house process which flags up a property for foreclosure. There is a built-in safety margin in this process which varies from lender to lender but times are tough and lenders these days are afraid that if they wait any longer and house prices dip they will lose even more money as the homes they have foreclosed on fetch a lot less than they might fetch now.
3. For a lender to foreclose on a property and decide to take possession and sell it on marks a certain desperation. Lenders are not really geared up to sell houses. Foreclosed properties are always less than perfect and even a prime example in a really good location usually fetches up to 40% below its market value, many times far less.
You will ask, quite naturally, why are there foreclosures then? Well, because it is the only tool left to lenders after borrowers fail to make a number of payments that ensure that they get some of their money back and send a strong message to other home owners regarding making their payments on time.
The point here is that with lenders under pressure from official channels to be a little less quick to foreclose on properties, struggling homeowners now have the opportunity to fight to keep their property by talking to the lender and seeing if they can come to some arrangement.
The rules here are: be honest, be creative and be prompt. Do not wait until the eviction agents are at the door to ring your lender. Call or write. Explain the problem in detail and, above all, offer a solution. In the foreclosure stakes Officialdom, for once, is very much on your side so make sure you capitalise on it and keep the communication channels open. After all it is your home that is at stake.
Abstract: Foreclosures are at their highest in 50 years but there is little point in appointing blame if we cannot come up with a concrete, immediate solution.
It is human nature to look for a scapegoat the moment things begin to go wrong and the current situation with the foreclosure market in the US real estate scene is no different. The results coming in from different lenders across every state in the US indicate that foreclosures are at an all-time high.
Certainly this century has also been one for records in the real estate market with home prices setting records for many consecutive months and the number of home owners, in itself, reaching a record high, so it is not that surprising that foreclosures, the flip side of the heady home ownership coin, are also breaking records.
This does not answer the question who is to blame though. Let’s examine the equation a little more closely. Lenders, who are at their most efficient and profitable when they are lending money and receiving payments, are, generally speaking, reluctant to foreclosure on a property and take ownership unless they are getting nervous that the home owner can no longer make payments and delay is going to result in further losses for the lender.
Homeowners have been leveraging their house equity and ability to readily borrow money for the last decade now so it comes as little surprise that quite a few of them in the sub-prime mortgage market find themselves over-stretched.
The Federal Reserve Bank has been trying to curb spending and inflation in the economy through the longest period of interest rate hikes this century, they have, seemingly, succeeded but have managed to over-expose those borrowers who had borrowed to the hilt in order to buy a property.
In the blame game it would be easy to start with the borrowers who keep on borrowing and cannot stop spending, take lenders in our stride, particularly as it is becoming increasingly obvious that mane have been sailing a little too close to the wind for comfort when it comes to the transparency of charges in the loans they were offering to borrowers and end up with the Federal Reserve intent on keeping the economy from overheating at any cost.
None of this would serve to undo what has been done. What is important now is how do we make sure the real estate market does not suffer and foreclosures do not exceed the norm?
President Bush and members of Congress have appealed to the mortgage industry to lower rates, and the industry says it is working with struggling homeowners. Now, the top prosecutors in 37 states are putting more direct pressure on lenders to open communication lines and not force foreclosure on struggling homeowners. The trick here is on communication and flexibility.
If lenders manage to keep their nerve and not force foreclosures in fear of losing even more money as the real estate market slumps and house prices drop then all this is but a blimp as we head towards the golden promise of a 21st century where house equity and house prices keep on growing at a steady rate.
Abstract: The level of consumer debt in the US has reached unprecedented levels but that is a sign of a naturally growing, expanding economy and the number of foreclosures in defaulted real estate loans is a natural part of this cycle.
In 2004 warning bells were struck when the Fed released figures which showed that the level of consumer debt in the US, including mortgages, had risen to a staggering $10.5 trillion up from just $7 trillion four years earlier and it did not look like it was going to slow down.
Those who belong to the ‘I told you so’ camp will now point out that the number of foreclosures we are seeing as a result of the failure of the sub-prime mortgage market and lenders’ exposure in that field, is a direct result of this rising mountain of debt. The successive raises in interest which have occurred since that moment have certainly contributed and the temptation here is to see the individual borrower as a microcosm of the lending institutions in reverse, suddenly finding themselves over-exposed in a market where the interest rate hikes successively made it harder and harder for them to make payments.
Ok, reality check guys. Certainly the national level of consumer debt and the fact that it is rising is something to worry about. Certainly the interest rate hikes and consumers’ unwillingness to stop spending have something to do with foreclosures but there would be a heck of a lot more foreclosures around if the level of national debt suddenly reversed and started to shrink.
Why? Simply because debt is driven by the ability of borrowers to borrow which also indicates the health of the economy as a whole. If, for instance, borrowers suddenly lost the ability to fund their borrowing, lending would top, debt would begin to reduce and the market would begin to shrink all of which is entirely bad news for the real estate market and house buying and yes, then we would also see a huge number of foreclosures as lenders would have to take extreme action to recover as much money as they can in order to buttress themselves in a shrinking economy.
This has not yet happened. Foreclosures are rising but compared to the number of new home buyers and the overall number of sub-prime mortgages out there they are a very bearable, if somewhat painful, percentage. As long as there is confidence for borrowers to keep on spending and lenders to keep on lending and provided that borrowers can fund their spending and borrowing then the market will continue to expand, house prices will continue to gain, the mountain of debt will continue to get bigger and foreclosures will continue, in real numbers, to be part of the equation.
It is only when this chain of events is broken that we all need to start getting worried and this has not happened yet.
Abstract: The median price per square foot in the purchase or sale of a home is the weather vane of the real estate market, foreclosures are affecting this powerful indicator, but overall the news is not as bad as it appears.
The median price per square foot is a vital barometer of the overall state of health of the real estate market. Here’s why: First builders and developers use it in order to estimate their costs and return on investment in new properties they build and older properties they acquire, re-model and sell on.
Second, home buyers use it to determine their budgets and buying power.
Third, it is used by Realtors as a barometer if the way the market is heading so that they can calculate what is happening and what the overall trend is.
Fourth, it is used by appraisers and lenders as a means of calculating the value of a home against a loan or early sale.
Fifth, it is used by foreclosure experts who use it to calculate the bargaining power they have.
For all of these reasons the moment the median price goes up or down the market as a whole shifts accordingly to compensate. At the moment in Seattle, for example, the news is that the median price per square foot fell by a whole $3.00 from $240 (which, incidentally was a record high) to $237.00.
It is tempting to read too much in this shift and argue that the market is in decline, values are dropping and the real estate market is shrinking, but then when we actually remember that it is still above last year’s levels we realise that the perceived shrink is against current price performance level expectations which may be unrealistic, rather than a decline as such.
In addition to this the fact that the foreclosures hitting the market are releasing house stock which is selling well below its market value and therefore well below the per square foot price it would get if it was sold through normal channels, must indicate that the value of homes is still rising otherwise the per square foot drop would have been a lot steeper.
All this becomes relevant only if you are thinking of selling your house or buying a home. Unless there is an urgent need to sell a house waiting for foreclosures to settle and the market to find an even keel again will only benefit you. If you are buying perhaps now is the time to find a real bargain in either a brand new home or one of many bargains hitting the market as part of the property foreclosure sales.
Foreclosures are a hot item at the moment with a lot of attention being given to the fact that they appear to be on the increase. Foreclosures also play a vital part in stimulating the housing market by allowing new home owners to come in at a level which perhaps they would not otherwise afford. As long as they do not get out of hand and start having a negative impact on the market then they are nothing to worry about.
Abstract: A foreclosure is never a good thing to have to go through but even at that stage there are still options left to a home owner facing financial straits.
The press is, at the moment, awash with reports regarding the rate of foreclosures on properties where the owner has either defaulted on repayments or, even worse, absconded and can no longer be found.
Foreclosures are never happy affairs. I am not going to examine here why some things happen and how it is possible for a home owner to find themselves in a situation where losing the home they have strived so hard to purchase is a real possibility, because we all understand that sometimes bad luck strikes and it is possible for anyone to fall down.
What I am going to focus instead is on what you can do to pick yourself up from a situation like this and move on.
For anyone facing foreclosure the choices available for moving out of the foreclosure zone are three: 1. bring your repayments current. This means that you need to discuss with your lender what you can do and how in order to bring your repayments current. How understanding and patient your lender is prepared to be will depend on your credit history with them and the length of time you have been a client of theirs. The trick here is communication. Do not be afraid to explain your situation and your willingness to rectify it and be reachable at all time.
2. Refinance. This is a tricky option because it means you will need to find a way to raise money when you are already strapped for cash. Refinancing is a complicated field in its own right but, broadly speaking, you will have the option of getting a loan, finding an understanding and wealthy friend willing to lend you money in return of getting some interest or raising another mortgage on your home. Which option you go for will depend on your personal circumstances, the expectation of finance you have plus what you think you are comfortable with in terms of repayments.
3. Sell up, pay back and move on. This is your final option. It means you will need to sell the home you own, use the money you get from the sale to pay back what you owe and move on with your life debt free. There are a few caveats here as you need to be careful to see your credit history survives the debacle plus you don’t end up paying off one mortgage (if you have more than one) and then taking a default and ending up owing the other one with no means of paying it back.
The deal is that whichever option you choose to follow in order to move out of the default zone you will need to plan it carefully, understand your reasons why you are doing it, understand the options available and the consequences and then focus on seeing it through.
Abstract: New home sales figures are the lowest they have been for fifteen years but this may not necessarily be a valid reason for worrying.
There is always a risk analysing real estate sales on a month-by-month, year-by-year basis precisely because the underlying factors are fluid and nothing is really the same in the comparisons. However it is always important to understand the state of the market and until a better way presents itself this will have to suffice.
With sales of new homes in the Seattle area the lowest in five years it might be tempting to say that yes, the housing market is slowing down. Pundits have even began contemplating the dreaded ‘R’ word in relation to the economy.
I am going out on a limb here but my guess is that the economy is as far away from a recession as it has ever been and that while new home sales figures may be slow buyers are just taking longer to pick new homes for two distinct but related reasons:
First foreclosures are beginning to bring into the market a steady stream of homes which can be picked up at a bargain price. Homes which are brought to the market as a result of foreclosure are more complicated to sell, the buyer needs to line up credit and a survey needs to be done if it hasn’t already and because the homes are almost always in less than perfect condition buyers tend to take longer to make up their mind as they weigh up all the options available to them.
Lenders also are more careful these days. They take longer to line up credit, carry out all the due diligence checks they need to and are less eager to accept self-certified borrowers because this has been one of the causes which have led us to the current state of the market here.
So, what is the real picture you are going to ask me. While it is true that overall new home sales are down compared to the same month’s figures of a year ago we have to take into account the factor of foreclosure releasing a lot of competitively priced properties in the market plus the length of time required to complete a purchase.
The real estate market has slowed down a little in terms of growth but it is not shrinking by a long shot. As we are heading towards the end of year the figures will begin to rally a little and there will be a partial recovery. It is safe to say perhaps that the real estate market will be like this for some time as lenders and borrowers try to avoid the mistakes which have led to the current level of foreclosures and that, in my book, is a good thing to happen for everyone concerned.













































